Why Ethiopia is Alarmed by the Egypt-Somalia Military Alliance

The recent military alliance between Somalia and Egypt has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly concerning Ethiopia. The agreement, which involves the deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia, is seen as a direct challenge to Ethiopia, a country already at odds with Egypt over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Tensions escalated when two Egyptian C-130 military aircraft arrived in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, marking the beginning of this controversial alliance. The plan includes up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers joining an African Union (AU) force, with an additional 5,000 soldiers potentially being deployed separately. Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Shabab militants, expressed its concerns, warning that it would not stand idly by while actions are taken that could destabilize the region.

Somalia’s response has been defiant, accusing Ethiopia of meddling and stating that each country will face the consequences of its actions. The friction between the two nations stems from Ethiopia’s ambition to secure a port along the coast, a goal that has driven it to strike a controversial deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region from Somalia. This deal, which allows Ethiopia to lease part of Somaliland’s coastline for 50 years, has been labeled an act of aggression by Somalia, further souring relations. The situation is complicated by Ethiopia’s existing conflict with Egypt over the Nile River, with the dam being a focal point of the dispute. Egypt fears that Ethiopia’s dam will significantly reduce its water supply, a concern that has led to threats of military action in the past. The deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia, near Ethiopia’s borders, only exacerbates these fears.

Regional experts warn that this tension could escalate into a broader conflict, drawing in other players in the region and potentially disrupting global trade through the Red Sea. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, who have vested interests in the region, are watching the situation closely, with some, like Turkey, expected to step in as mediators. Image Credit: Getty Images